In response to Kataib Hezbollah’s attack on Saturday’s Ain al-Asad air base, where Iraqi and American forces are stationed, US military planes on Wednesday attacked three facilities used by Iranian-backed militias in Jurf al-Sakhr. and destroyed weapons depots and training facilities. School of missiles and explosive drones.
Militia groups have launched at least 130 attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria since October, and the Biden administration has responded several times. The US has described its response as “unilateral” to avoid embarrassing Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed al-Sudani, whose coalition government has a pro-Iranian parliamentary majority. President Sudani could end the US presence in Iraq with his signature, but he has not yet done so.
Why are Sudanese reluctant? The most plausible answer is that Iran itself fears American sanctions against Iraq if Washington is forced to withdraw its troops. Iran’s economy has been hit hard by harsh US sanctions and, despite US sanctions, relies on three lifelines: oil exports to China, illicit trade (including drugs and extortion), and Iraq. .
In January 2020, when the United States killed General Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and his Iraqi deputy Abu Mahdi al-Muhandes, the Iraqi parliament sent a letter to Adel Abdul-Mahdi’s interim cabinet, threatening the Iranian revolution. held a meeting to pass a resolution that would have ended. the presence of an anti-ISIS coalition that includes 2,500 U.S. military advisers;
While the Iraqis were debating their own laws, then-President Donald Trump told Baghdad, “We’re going to impose sanctions on them that we’ve never seen before. Sanctions on Iran will appear to be somewhat lenient.” The economic threat worked. The Kurdish and Sunni blocs, who make up just under half of Iraq’s 329-member parliament, were absent from the session. The then-speaker, the leader of the Sunni faction, Mohammed al-Harbousi, was captured on leaked tape opposing the vote during a parliamentary debate. “One of the measures the international community could take (in retaliation for this vote) could be to suspend financial transactions with Iraq,” Halbousi said.
Hundreds of demonstrators gather to protest against the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which attacked the northern Iraqi city of Erbil last week, in Akre, Duhok region, Iraq, on January 22, 2024.
Iraq is OPEC’s second largest oil producer, with a daily production of 4 million barrels and annual sales of $120 billion. The world’s most corrupt Iraqi oligarch needs this money to fund its patronage network. Iran also needs Iraq’s money.
Iran sells gas and electricity to Iraq. The Biden administration announced a waiver that would allow Baghdad to repay more than $10 billion it owes Tehran in 2023. Iran is also siphoning off some or all of Iraq’s $10 billion in cash through small exchange offices.
On top of that, Baghdad has spent $3 billion on 160,000 pro-Iranian Shiite militias. By comparison, consider that Jordan’s 170,000 professional military (F-16 squadrons and Black Hawk helicopters, navy and infantry, including artillery and tanks) costs $2 billion a year.
Iraqi militia salaries are secret, with allegations that both the Iraqi regular army and Iran-backed militias are full of “ghost soldiers” whose salaries are collected by corrupt Iraqi officials and their bosses in Tehran was confirmed.
No matter how Tehran spends Baghdad’s money, it collects a lot of money, especially when compared to Tehran’s annual spending of $49 billion. There are good reasons why the Islamic Republic wants to avoid U.S. sanctions against Iraq, but Tehran says it could trigger sanctions if it orders Sudani to send a letter asking the U.S. to withdraw. Are concerned.
But if Iran and its militias want to prevent America from withdrawing, why would they attack American troops in the first place? The answers vary.
At home, rival Iraqi militias are trying to outdo each other and project an anti-Western image by attacking U.S. forces on Iraqi bases. At the regional level, Iran constantly reminds the world that Baghdad is under its control and that the continued presence of U.S. forces in Iraq is with the permission and benevolence of the Iranian government.
So Sudan’s statement made headlines, but little was said. “The end of the United Nations mission is inevitable,” Iraq’s prime minister said, without giving a date. In other statements, Sudani typically announces the formation of a committee to discuss withdrawal with the US government.
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. Attack on Iranian-backed militias in Jurf al-Sakhr. Instead, the Sudanese forced their military adviser, Yehia Abdullah, to issue a statement criticizing the United States for attacking bases housing pro-Iranian militias and Iraqi forces. However, Jurf al-Sakhr does not accept Iraqi troops stationed with their American comrades in Ain al-Assad, and says the Iraqi air force based there is under frequent shelling from militias. ing.
“We call on the international community to take responsibility for maintaining peace and security and to prohibit any (U.S.) violations that threaten Iraq and its stability,” Abdullah said. The statement, made only in Arabic, was probably intended to appease rivals, not to ask the United States to withdraw. For now, Iran doesn’t seem to want that.